000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152133
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 08N to inland 
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Only
isolated showers are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 
07N to 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 14N to 17N. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave
from 14N to 17N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia, westward
to southern Costa Rica and continues to 10N85W to 06N98W to 
10N108W to 15N115W to low pressure near 11N128W 1012 mb to low 
pressure near 11N137W 1011 mb and to west of area at 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 
180 nm south of trough between 118W and 121W 108W, within 120 
nm south of trough between 115W and 119W and within 60 nm north 
of trough between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm north of trough between 124W and 126W, and within 
120 nm north of trough between 108W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
as seen in an ASCAT satellite pass. Seas with these winds are 
peaking to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
California. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are 4
to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico 
offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside of Tehuantepec 
within SE swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong to northerly winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue into early Tue, then diminish 
to gentle to moderate speeds Tue afternoon and become light and 
variable Tue night. Seas of 10 ft will continue this morning and 
subside below 8 ft by tonight. Moderate SE winds across the SW 
Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed. Moderate winds 
will develop west of the Baja California peninsula Tue night and 
continue through most of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The earlier fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region have diminished to fresh speeds this afternoon.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere N of 02N, including across most of the Central America 
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft outside of 
Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
within S swell are occurring between the Galapagos Islands and 
Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
tonight and Tue night in the Papagayo region, then diminish 
through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. Fairly 
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 
22N and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 
19N to 31N and W of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are 
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE
swell are noted from 10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is 
bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator to 05N and W of 95W. 
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N 
between 115W and 140W. Seas of 8 ft in mixed N and S swell 
will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W 
through most of the week. The swell in waters W of 135W will 
diminish by Wed. Meanwhile, the tropical wave that is near 116W 
as described above is anticipated to merge with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula along the monsoon trough
near 11N128W within the next day or so. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development after that occurs, and a 
tropical depression could form during mid to late week as the 
system moves west-northwestward across the central and western 
portions of the basin. This system has a low chance of 
development in 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days. 

$$
Aguirre