000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W extending from the 
Caribbean Sea across El Salvador and into the far eastern 
waters, moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 16N southward, 
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 16N southward, 
moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 06N100W to 12N116W to 1010 mb low near 11N125W to a 
1010 mb low near 11N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 107W
and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 91W and 102W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale northerly winds persist over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including
the Gulf of California. Seas across the Baja California offshore
waters are 4 to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. Over the SW and 
southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside 
of Tehuantepec within SE swell. In the Gulf of California, seas
are to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning, and
diminish below fresh by Tue afternoon. Seas of 10 ft will
continue this morning and subside below 8 ft by tonight. Moderate
SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will persist 
through Wed. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja 
California peninsula Tue night and continue through most of the 
week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere N of 02N, including across most of the Central America 
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft outside of 
Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft within S swell are occurring between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador. Strong thunderstorms are impacting areas off the
Colombia coast and near the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail 
over the Papagayo region through Wed morning before diminishing 
through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. Fairly 
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 19N and W of 120W. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 19N to 31N and W of 110W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell is noted from 
10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north
of the equator to 05N and W of 95W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N 
between 115W and 140W. Southerly swell to 8 ft will spread north
of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through most of the
week. The swell in waters W of 135W will diminish by Wed.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. 
This wave is slightly better organized than yesterday, and 
environmental conditions could become more conducive for further 
development in a day or so. This system could become a tropical 
depression mid to late week while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 kt across the central and western portion of the basin.
This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and
medium chance in 7 days. 

$$
AReinhart