000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W extending from the Caribbean seas across Costa Rica and into the far eastern waters, moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 16N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N91W to 12N117W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 83W and 90W, from 10N to 16N between 100W and 112W, and from 05N to 14N between 115W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale northerly winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 6 ft, are over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are over the forecast waters S of SW Mexico, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is resulting in light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this week before diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft today and Mon. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish today. Moderate to fresh SE winds will move across the SW Mexican offshore waters today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast through Tue. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through early this week before diminishing slightly through the remainder forecast period. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the middle of the week. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in N swell N of 27N between 130W and 137W. Another area of seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell is noted from 10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft S of the equator and W of 110W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N between 115W and 140W. Northerly swell over the far northern waters will subside today. Southerly swell to 8 ft will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through early this week. $$ AL