000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140244
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W extending from the 
Caribbean seas across Costa Rica and into the far eastern 
waters, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted N of 06N between 81W and 86W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 16N southward, 
moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 20N southward, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N114W to 12N134W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 14N and W of 96W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are over 
the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are over the 
forecast waters S of SW Mexico, where seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is resulting in light 
to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week before 
diminishing. Seas will peak to 9 ft on Sun and Mon. Fresh to 
strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish Sun. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds will move across the SW Mexican 
offshore waters through Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are
forecast through Tue. Moderate winds will develop west of the 
Baja California peninsula the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. 
Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside 
from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail 
over the Papagayo region through early next week before 
diminishing slightly through the remainder forecast period. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will 
continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
through the middle of next week. Fairly tranquil conditions are 
forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to near 22N and W of
120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in N swell N of 28N between 125W and
136W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected 
from 10N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Large northerly swell 
over the far northern waters will subside Sun. Southerly swell 
to 8 ft may reach north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 
120W Sun into early next week. Winds may freshen south of the 
ITCZ and west of 110W early next week.

$$
ERA