000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112033
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 07N near 86W, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
05N to 13N between 85W and 90W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 07N to southwestern 
Mexico near 107W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection
is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N105W to 10N127W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N and E of 
80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 110W and 130W, and from 05N to 10N between 130W and 
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
seas in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient 
across the discussion waters is resulting in light to gentle 
breezes across most the Mexican offshore waters, with moderate 
winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft in S swell 
over the open Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week, increasing 
slightly this weekend. These winds will build rough seas by the 
weekend. A surge of southerly fresh to strong winds may develop 
in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong 
southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California Fri 
night through Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, with mainly moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas across the waters are in the 4-6 ft range in S 
swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop in the 
Papagayo region tonight through the upcoming weekend, possibly 
near gale at times with building seas. These winds and seas may 
spread westward to the waters well offshore Guatemala and El 
Salvador by early Fri. Southerly swell may build seas slightly 
offshore Ecuador this weekend. Fairly tranquil conditions are 
forecast elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Gentle to moderate winds are found N of 20N and W of 125W, as
well as N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 15N between 120W and
140W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the monsoon
trough. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted over the NW waters, and in the 
4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas north of the 20N and west of 125W through the end of the
week. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected from 10N to 
22N between 120W and 140W. Large N to NE swell should move south
of 30N and west of 120W beginning on Fri. Southerly swell to 8 
ft may reach north of equator to 10N and between 110W and 125W 
this weekend into early next week. Winds may freshen south of the
ITCZ and west of 110W early next week.

$$
AL