000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101444
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 07N to southern Mexico near
100W, moving west at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is 
discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 13N102W to low pressure
near 10N121W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to
09N132W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 08N136W to
beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered isolated moderate convection is
observed within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 96W,
north of the monsoon trough to Mexico between 94W and 107W, and
from 06N to 10N between 132W and 138W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 113W and
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the discussion waters, 
resulting in light to gentle breezes across the Mexican offshore
waters, with gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf of 
California and Gulf of Tehuantepec waters. Seas are 3-5 ft in S 
swell over the open Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week, increasing
slightly this weekend. These winds will build rough seas by the
weekend. A surge of southerly fresh to at least strong winds may
develop in the northern Gulf of California Thu night associated 
with deep convection moving off Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly
flow will prevail across the Gulf of California Fri night through
Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, with
mainly moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate to fresh SW winds offshore Costa Rica and western
Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas across the 
waters are in the 4-6 ft range in S swell, except 2-4 ft 
offshore Colombia to 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop in the
Papagayo region Thu night through the upcoming weekend, possibly
near gale at times with building seas. These winds and seas may
spread westward to the waters well offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador by early Fri. Southerly swell may build seas slightly
offshore Ecuador this weekend. Fairly tranquil conditions are 
forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 35N139W. Moderate to 
fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are noted over the NW waters, 
mainly north of 22N and west of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere, in southerly
swell except mixed with northerly in the NW waters.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas north of the 20N and west of 125W through the end of the
week. Tradewinds will be weaker than usual with gentle to 
moderate NE winds between 10N-22N through the end of the week. 
Looking ahead, large N to NE swell should move south of 30N and 
west of 120W beginning on Fri. Southerly swell to 8 ft may reach 
north of equator to 05N west of 130W by Fri. 

$$
Lewitsky