000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090807
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 10N along 93W moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 92W and
102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N95W to 09N130W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 10N135W to beyond 08N140W. 
In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves 
section, scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-11N 
between 111W-116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough well northwest of Clarion Island is breaking up the 
subtropical ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle
breezes across the entire Mexican offshore and Gulf of 
California waters. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell over the Pacific 
waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the 
N Gulf of California today, moderate or weaker winds will 
persist through Thu across the Mexican offshore waters. Looking 
ahead, a trade wind surge may follow a tropical wave passing 
through Central America and southern Mexico starting by Fri. This
may support a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event Fri and Sat 
with fresh to strong NE winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to 
moderate. North of the monsoon trough, the winds are light to 
gentle. Seas across the waters are 5-6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over 
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next few days.
Looking ahead, a gap wind event may occur off N Central America 
Fri and Sat with fresh to strong E winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 33N140W. The gradient 
between the high and a trough northwest of Clarion Island near
23N127W is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of 20N 
west of 130W. Combined seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE
trade winds and 6-7 ft combined seas are also evident south of 
the high pressure from 10N-20N west of 135W. Gentle to moderate 
winds and 4-7 ft seas in mixed N and S swell dominate the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the trough will persist through late in the 
week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7 ft seas 
between this trough and higher pressure to the northwest through 
mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W. The 
tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle to moderate
NE winds between 10N-22N through the end of the week. Looking 
ahead, large N to NE swell should move southward of 30N west of 
120W beginning on Fri. Similarly, southerly swell to 8 ft may
reach north of equator to 05N west of 130W Fri as well. 

$$
Christensen