000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 09N along 90W moving west at 10
kt. No significant deep convection is present near the tropical 
wave this morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guatemala near 
14N91W to a 1010 mb low at 10N121W. The ITCZ extends from 
the low to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 07N-15N between 95W-123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extending from 28N124W to 22N129W is breaking up the 
subtropical ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle
breezes across the entire Mexican offshore and Gulf of 
California waters. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell over the Pacific 
waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the 
N Gulf of California through tomorrow, moderate or weaker winds 
will persist through Thu across the Mexican offshore waters. 
Looking ahead, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may occur on 
Fri and Sat with fresh to strong NE winds. . 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to 
moderate. North of the monsoon trough, the winds are light to 
gentle. Seas across the waters are 5-6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over 
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next few days.
Looking ahead, a gap wind event may occur off N Central America 
Fri and Sat with fresh to strong E winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 33N140W. The gradient 
between the high and a trough extending from 28N124W to 22N129W 
is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of 20N west of 
127W. Combined seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE trade 
winds and 6-7 ft combined seas are also evident south of the high
pressure from 10N-20N west of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds and
4-7 ft seas in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the trough will persist through late in the 
week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7 ft seas 
between this trough and higher pressure to the northwest through 
mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W. The 
tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle to moderate
NE winds between 10N-22N through the end of the week. Looking 
ahead, large N to NE swell should move southward across the 30N 
border west of 120W beginning on Fri.

$$
Landsea