000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 10N along 89W moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
north of 11N between 85W-95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N87W to a 1010 mb low at 10N121W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends 
from 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is active from 09N-11N between 117W-121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough southwest of Guadalupe Island is breaking up the 
subtropical ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle
breezes across the entire Mexican offshore waters. Winds over 
the Gulf of California are SE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft
over the Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the 
N Gulf of California during the next two days, moderate or weaker
winds will persist through Thu across the Mexican offshore 
waters. Looking ahead, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may 
begin Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to 
moderate. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Central America from
northwest Costa Rica to southern Guatemala. North of the monsoon
trough, the winds are light to gentle. Seas across the waters 
are 4-6 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over 
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next several 
days. Looking ahead, a gap wind event may begin over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N135W. The gradient 
between the high and a trough near Guadalupe Island is supporting
moderate to fresh N winds north of 22N between 125W-135W. 
Combined seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE trade winds 
and 6-7 ft combined seas are also evident south of the high 
pressure from 09N-22N west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and
5-7 ft seas in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the trough near Guadalupe Island will persist 
through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the northwest
through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W. The 
tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle to moderate
NE winds between 10N-22N for the next several days. Expect the 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to persist for the next several days. Seas of 6-8 ft will 
prevail over the waters in mixed N and S swell through Thu.
Looking ahead, a large NE swell event will be reaching our 30N
border beginning on Fri, causing building seas west of 120W.

$$
Christensen