000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 02N along 86W moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active 
in the SW flow south of the monsoon trough ahead of the tropical 
wave from 07N-12N east of 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1011 mb low at 10N119W to another 1011 mb low at
09N125W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
active from 07N-11N between 125W-133W. Scattered moderate 
convection is active from 07N-09N between 115W-118W and from
11N-16N between 94W-99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough near Guadalupe Island is breaking up the subtropical 
ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle breezes 
across the entire Mexican offshore waters. Winds over the Gulf of
California are SE gentle to fresh. Seas are 5-6 ft over the
Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the 
N Gulf of California during the next two days, moderate or weaker
winds will persist through Thu across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to 
moderate. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
active in the SW flow south of the monsoon trough ahead of the 
tropical wave from 07N-12N east of 95W. North of the monsoon 
trough, the winds are light to gentle. Seas across the waters are
5-7 ft in S swell. 

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over 
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next several 
days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail northwest of the 
Galapagos Islands, as noted by ship reports from the R/V Sally 
Ride. Combined seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft in this area. 
Farther northwest, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 
30N139W. The gradient between the high and a trough near 
Guadalupe Island is supporting moderate to fresh N winds north of
22N between 121W-132W. Combined seas are 6-7 ft in this area. 
Moderate NE trade winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are also evident
south of the high pressure from 10N-23N west of 128W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 6-8 ft seas in mixed N and S swell dominate 
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the trough along 30N120W to 24N122W will 
persist through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
and 5-7 ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the 
northwest through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 
125W. The tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle
to moderate NE winds between 10N-22N. Expect the moderate to 
fresh E to SE south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to persist 
for the next several days. Seas of 6-8 ft will prevail over the
waters in mixed N and S swell through the week.

$$
Landsea