000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Aletta is centered near 18.8N 109.8W at 05/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of the depression. Seas are still likely near 10 ft close to the center. Aletta will likely become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate shortly thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N E of 91W, and from 09N to 12N between 113W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Aletta. Pressures are generally lowering across northern Central America and southern Mexico, ahead of Hurricane Beryl in the northwest Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Farther north, an earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California, associated with slightly lower than normal pressure across the southern Colorado River Valley. For the forecast, Aletta will move to 18.5N 111.1W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 18.2N 112.6W Sat morning, 18.2N 114.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California into early next week associated with lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters north of 08N are 5 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell. South of 08N, seas are 5 to 7 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across the Central America offshore waters through tonight, with moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Northerly swell to 8 ft is noted across the waters north of 26N and W of 135W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for a small area of seas to 8 ft near the equator at 140W due to southerly swell. For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W through today, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly by late Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. $$ ERA