000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near southeast of Cabo Corrientes 18.5N 108.0W at 05/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished over the past several hours near the storm, and only scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Seas are still likely near 11 ft close to the center. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 06N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N115W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 07N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N east of 87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Aletta. Pressures are generally lowering across northern Central America and southern Mexico, ahead of Hurricane Beryl in the northwest Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, a recent scatterometer pass showed fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California, associated with slightly lower than normal pressure across the southern Colorado River Valley. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Aletta will weaken to a tropical depression near 18.6N 109.1W Fri morning, then become a remnant low before gradually dissipating near Clarion Island through late Sat. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California into early next week associated with lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters north of 08N are 5 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5 to 8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 32N125W, just east of a weak surface trough along 135W north of 22N. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Northerly swell to 8 ft is noted across the waters north of 25N between 125W and 140W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for a small area of seas to 8 ft near the equator at 140W due to southerly swell. For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W through Fri, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft. $$ Christensen