778 AXPZ20 KNHC 042046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near 17.9N 107.0W at 04/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 16N to 20N between 106W and 108W. Seas are peaking to 11 ft with this system. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 13N96W, then resumes near 12N109W to 09N132W. The ITCZ continues from 09N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 114W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Aletta. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area. This is allowing for light to gentle winds to prevail over the offshore waters as confirmed by latest scatterometer data. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters range from 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell with southerly swell noted south of Cabo San Lucas. Across the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, 6 to 8 ft seas are noted with 8 ft seas near the now upgraded T.S. Aletta, within mostly S swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are present along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Jalisco and Michoacan related to Aletta. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Aletta will weaken to a tropical depression near 18.3N 108.1W Fri morning, move to 18.2N 109.6W Fri afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 17.8N 111.1W Sat morning, 17.3N 112.8W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California through the weekend. Fresh to strong north gap winds and rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of 08N are 5 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5 to 8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from a 1018 mb high centered near 29N123W. The ridge covers the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The latest scatterometer data depicts mostly light to gentle winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Locally moderate winds are noted N of 25N and W of 130W. An area of seas 8 to 9 ft within N to NE swell is noted N of 28N between 127W and 139W. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft in the area. Meanwhile, south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are noted. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S swell. For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W through Fri, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft. $$ ERA