000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040917
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91): A concentrated area of 
showers and thunderstorms is associated with an area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast 
of Mexico. The low pressure is analyzed near 16N105W with a
central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 15N to 18N between 104W and 107W. While this activity
continues to show signs of organization, it is unclear if a 
well- defined center has formed with the system. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some additional development later
today, and a short-lived tropical depression could form during 
over the next day or so. By Friday, the system is forecast to 
move over cooler waters and development after that time is not 
expected. The disturbance is forecast to move northward today and
then turn northwestward by Friday, remaining offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance 
for tropical formation within the next 48 hours and 7 days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to low pres near 16N105W 1008 mb to 09N131W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 87W and 97W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation. 

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area. This is 
allowing for light to gentle winds over the offshore waters as
confirmed by the overnight scatterometer data. Seas across the 
Baja California offshore waters range from 5 to 7 ft within 
mostly NW swell with southerly swell noted south of Cabo San 
Lucas. Across the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, 6 to 8 
ft seas are noted with 8 ft seas near EP91, within mostly S 
swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Jalisco and Michoacan related to EP91.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue over the offshore the coast of southern Mexico over the
next few days due to EP91. Fresh winds and rough seas will also
continue through tonight. Otherwise, the gradient between a 
surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high 
pressure west of the area will continue to support moderate to 
fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California through the
weekend. Fresh to strong north gap winds and rough seas are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight through Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Meanwhile, 
mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder 
of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of 08N are 5 to 
6 ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5
to 8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. 

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Guatemala, El
Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms
are also noted in the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across 
the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of 
the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and 
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure 
of 1032 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge 
covers the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts mostly light to gentle winds north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Locally moderate winds are noted N
of 20N and W of 130W. An area of seas 8 to 9 ft within N to NE
swell is noted N of 27N between 125W and 137W. Otherwise, seas
range 5 to 7 ft in this area. Meanwhile, south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are 
noted. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S swell.  

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
through Fri, then expand beyond 100W through the weekend. Seas 
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly 
later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. 
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move
west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by 
moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward
through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft.

$$
AReinhart