000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021528
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. Its
axis is analyzed along 82W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the 
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 12N106W
1010 mb, to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 17N
and E of 109W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ W of
135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore 
waters, except for slightly higher winds in the fresh range west 
of Baja California Norte. Seas over these waters are in the 4 to 
7 ft range, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft west of Baja 
California in northwest swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle 
to moderate southeast winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4
ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the 
southern part of the Gulf and over the waters adjacent to the 
southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds are light to 
gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will  
continue along and offshore the coasts of southern and western 
Mexico through the end of the week due to the proximity of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough 
seas are forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters today. The gradient between a surface trough along the 
Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will
induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of 
California through Wed. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure 
is expected to form in a day or a few hundred miles south of the 
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form during the next few days while it moves northward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly 
fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of 
southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters 
are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with 
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the 
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are just offshore southern Nicaragua and Costa 
Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds 
producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Thu, then increase to fresh to strong and continue through Fri 
mainly N of 05N. Seas will build to 8 ft in this area of stronger
winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few 
days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of 
the activity. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure 
of 1036 mb, located well north of the area near 43N140W. The 
ridge covers the waters north of about 20N and west of 120W. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 20N. Gentle 
to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the 
ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. An overnight ASCAT 
pass captured moderate to fresh winds within 120 nm of a 1010 mb
low that is along the monsoon trough near 12N106W. Light to 
gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 6 to 8 
ft.

For the forecast, expect for the aforementioned moderate to  
fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough west of 120W to continue through at least Thu night, with 
seas subsiding slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. 
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to 
9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift 
westward by Wed to north of 28N and between 128W and 135W along 
with seas peaking to 9 ft.

$$
ERA