000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020915
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 02 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. It 
has its axis along 81W north of 04N, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either
side of the axis from 04N to 08N and within 60 nm of 08N83W.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of Panama over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia, westward to 
northern Costa Rica, southwestward to 10N87W, then northwestward
to 13N93W, westward to a 1010 mb low near 12N106W, then to 
11N121W and southwestward to 09N124W and westward to 08N129W, 
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to 
the ITCZ to beyond 09N140W. Numerous strong convection is within 
180 nm south of the trough between 92W and 95W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm 
south of the trough between 102W and 105W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 96W and 
100W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 89W and 91W, 
within 30 nm of the trough between 123W and 125W and between 134W
and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A rather weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for 
gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters, except for slightly higher winds in the fresh
range west of Baja California Norte. Seas over these waters 
are in the 4 to 7 ft range, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft 
west of Baja California in northwest swell. In the Gulf of 
California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are present
along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher 
seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern part of the Gulf and
over the waters adjacent to the southern tip of Baja California.
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in 
southerly swell.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident from just inland 
southern Mexico, extending westward out over the offshore waters
west of that section of Mexico. Similar activity is along the 
coast of western Mexico from near Manzanillo to within 90 nm 
northwest of Cabo Corrientes. This activity also reaches inland
the central section of Mexico.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to continue along and offshore the 
coasts of southern and western Mexico through the end of the 
week. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough 
seas are forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters tonight and Tue. The gradient between a surface trough 
along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the
area will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the 
Gulf of California from this afternoon through Wed. Otherwise, a 
broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or a few 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it 
moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly 
fresh southwest winds as noted in an overnight ASCAT pass 
are over the offshore waters west of southern Colombia and 
northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters are in 4 to 6 ft range
due to long-period south swell, with slightly higher seas of 5 
to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the vicinity of the Galapagos 
Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just offshore 
southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Some of this activity may 
contain strong gusty winds producing locally rough seas. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
most of the area through the forecast period, with the exception
that the fresh southwest winds west of southern Colombia and 
northern Ecuador diminish on Fri. Prior to this, winds become 
fresh to locally strong west of Costa Rica and northern Panama,
with seas building to 8 ft. These conditions then diminish on
Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few 
days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of 
the activity. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure 
of 1037 mb that is located well north of the area near 43N140W. 
The ridge covers the waters north of about 20N and west of
120W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicate moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds north of 18N and west of a line 
from 30N129W to 20N130W to 14N140W. Gentle to moderate north to 
northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 
ft over these waters. An overnight ASCAT pass captured moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds within 120 nm in the NW
quadrant of a 101 mb that is along the monsoon trough near 
12N106W. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of 
the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast 
winds continue south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W 
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, expect for the aforementioned moderate to 
locally fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough west of 120W to continue through at Thu night,
with seas subsiding slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south 
swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the 
Baja California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 
8 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will
shift westward by Wed to north of 28N and between 128W and 
135W along with seas peaking to around 9 ft.

$$
Aguirre