000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 15N99W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 11N106W to
08N114W to 07N127W where it transitions to the ITCZ, which
continues beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is from 05N to 08N E of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 07N to 16N between 86W and 104W, and from 08N to
14N between 103W and 113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 12N between 114W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for light to
gentle northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore waters.
Seas across these waters are 4 to 5 ft in northwest swell for the
waters off the Baja California Peninsula and southerly swell
elsewhere. Light to gentle southeast to south winds continue in 
along the Gulf of California along with seas to 3 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated to Tropical
Depression Chris inland SE Mexico are affecting the offshore
waters of Tehuantepec, Chiapas and Oaxaca.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue along and near the coast of southern Mexico today.
Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally
maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas over
the Mexican offshore waters through today. Moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters tonight and Tue. A surface 
trough along the Baja Peninsula, and a tighter pressure gradient
will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of
California Tue afternoon through Wed. Otherwise,a broad area of 
low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few hundred 
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form mid-to late-week while it moves west-
northwestward. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ongoing across the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia as well as the offshore
zones between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas across these
regions are 3 to 5 ft due to long-period south swell. However, 
gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing across the offshore
waters between Colombia and Costa Rica where heavy showers and
tstms are occurring. In the Gulf of Papagayo, winds are moderate
to fresh from the NE with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
most of the area through the week. Stronger winds to near gale
force are likely to continue south of the monsoon trough and over
the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through Fri as strong
convection is forecast to continue in the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure 
of 1033 mb that is located well north of the area near 42N141W. 
The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of 
the ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast 
winds are present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these 
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast 
winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W 
south of the monsoon through today. Southerly swell with seas to
8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between 97W and 
140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds will 
bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters 
tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the 
week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast 
to peak to about 10 ft Wed through Thu between 128W and 136W. 

$$
Ramos