000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. Currently, numerous moderate to strong convection is over Chiapas. Numerous strong convection is seen over Guatemala. This system Please refer to local weather advisories for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia, northwestward across central Panama to northern Costa Rica and continues northwestward to 13N92W, then westward to 13N97W, southwestward to low pressure near 11N015W 1010 mb, and to 07N112W to 08N116W to 07N123W. The ITCZ extends from 07N123W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough and low between 103W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of the trough between 106W and 110W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over southern Mexico. A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is supporting light to gentle northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate northwest winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of California through Mon along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Mexico through early next week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible during the next several days while the system moves west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over northern Central America. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft with south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across most of the Central America offshore waters. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south swell. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. Afterward, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all of the offshore waters through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1027 mb that is located well north of the area near 34N136W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 122W. North of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 130W, moderate to fresh northeast winds are present except for gentle northeast winds in the far NW part. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough, except for light and variable winds from 08N to 18N between 111W and 121W and for moderate northeast winds within 60 nm NW of a 1010 mb low that is near 16N121W. A trough extends northwest from the low to 18N128W, and southeastward from the low to 12N115W. No significant convection is occurring with this feature. Isolated showers are possible from 15N to 19N between 118W and 123W. Moderate east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in southeast to south swell east of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ Aguirre