000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: Broad circulation across Central America will deliver heavy rainfall across Mexico southward to Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across all of the Central American countries - from Guatemala southward to Panama. For the forecast, heavy rainfall is expected to impact Costa Rica and Panama through today, spreading northward to Nicaragua, Guatemala, and El Salvador through the weekend. As the circulation continues moving north, these storms will impact southern Mexico later in the weekend into Mon. Please refer to local weather advisories for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mexico near 15N93W to 10N109W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 10N134W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 154 between 83W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential this weekend over southern Mexico. Weak surface ridging continues to extend across the Baja California waters. This is leading to light to gentle winds over most of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate winds are likely occurring in the Baja California Norte waters N of 28N. Scatterometer also depicts moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within N to NW swell across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central America is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas could filter into the Baja California Norte waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential this weekend over Central America. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds across the Costa Rica offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds likely extend into the Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are noted farther north in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in these waters within S to SW swell. Across the Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area within S to SW swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central America will support moderate to fresh SW winds across the offshore waters of Costa Rica into Guatemala through Sat. This system will also bring showers and thunderstorms across these areas through the weekend. Afterward, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all of the offshore waters Sun through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends SE from a 1024 mb high pressure center near 37N137W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 123W. North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle to moderate. Locally fresh winds are noted N of of the ITCZ to 18N and W of 130W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. E of 120W, a 1011 mb low pressure is noted near 17N119W. Scatterometer data showed moderate winds are occurring around the low. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail with seas to 5 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft. Seas are to 8 ft with some of the fresh winds near 06N94W. For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ AReinhart