000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall over Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala:

Fresh to occasional strong SW flow is delivering increased 
moisture into the mountainous areas along the Pacific coast from 
northwest Costa Rica to southern Guatemala. These winds are 
influenced by the interaction of a pair of tropical waves moving 
westward along the monsoon trough through the southwest Caribbean
and southern Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
into Fri. Please refer to local weather advisories for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 91W through El
Salvador moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure 
persists in the vicinity of where this wave intersects the 
monsoon trough. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds is supporting
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N to 08N
between 85W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 15N. It is
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident from 05N to 08N between 85W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 09N88W to 13N105W to 11N115W to 11N133W to 1012 mb low
pressure near 11N134W to 09N135W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W 
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast
of Nicaragua and El Salvador north of 05N between 85W and 90W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 08N between
85W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface troughs are analyzed west of Baja California north
of 15N between 115W and 130W. This weak pressure pattern
continues to support gentle to moderate winds across Mexican
offshore waters, except for fresh pulses off Cabo San Lucas
overnight tonight. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, a weak gradient over the area will generally 
maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across 
the Mexican offshore waters through the weekend. Broad low 
pressure is forecast to form over northern Central America and 
southern Mexico by this weekend, likely enhancing showers and 
thunderstorms offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See tropical wave and monsoon trough sections above for
information on convection offshore Central America. Light to 
gentle winds persist across waters north of the monsoon trough, 
with mainly moderate SW winds to the south. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
north of the monsoon trough and 5 to 7 ft to the south.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over Central America will support
moderate to fresh SW winds off southern Central America into
Fri, along with moderate to rough seas and scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The low pressure may strengthen some this weekend
over northern Central America, enhancing convection. Mainly
gentle winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted within 120 nm north of
a weak 1012 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near
11N134W. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure gradient across 
the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ is leading to 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas west of 110W. To the 
east, moderate to occasional fresh SW winds are noted S of the 
monsoon trough, in response to lower pressure over Central 
America ahead of a tropical wave moving through the western 
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east
of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week through the
weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik