000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 87W through 
Nicaragua moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Weak low pressure has
formed in the vicinity of where this wave intersects the monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate convection is active north of 02N and
east of 85W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 99W from 05N to 15N. It is 
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident 
near this weak wave at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N110W to 12N125W to 
08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Central 
America from Costa Rica to Guatemala north of 05N between 85W and
90W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 08N to
12N between 108W and 118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The previous surface trough west of the area has dissipated, but
the weak pressure regime continues in its wake and light winds
prevail across most of the subtropics, including the Mexican
offshore waters. The except is offshore Cabo San Lucas, where
local drainage effects are leading to pulsing fresh N to NW
winds. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with 
components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf 
of California.
 
For the forecast, a weak gradient over the area will generally 
maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across 
the Mexican offshore waters through Sun. Broad low pressure is 
forecast to form over northern Central America and southern 
Mexico this weekend, which may enhance showers and thunderstorms 
offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See tropical wave and monsoon trough sections above for
information on convection offshore Central America. Light to 
gentle winds persist across waters north of the monsoon trough, 
with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of
the monsoon trough and 5 to 7 ft to the south.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over the western Caribbean and
Central America will support moderate to fresh SW winds off
southern Central America into Fri, along with moderate to rough 
seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The low pressure
may strengthen some this weekend, enhancing convection and
bringing a chance for heavy rainfall. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient across the waters N of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ is leading to gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas W of 110W. To the east, moderate to occasional 
fresh SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough, in response to 
lower pressure over Central America ahead of a tropical wave 
moving through the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east
of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week through the
weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik