721 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260321
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 81W through 
western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active over eastern Panama
following the tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W reaching southward from
the Oaxaca, Mexico, to near 05N. It is drifting westward at 5 to
10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis 
at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 12N125W to
08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is active off Costa Rica from
06N to 12N E of 92W, from 10N to 12N between 106W and 117W, and 
from 06N to 10N between 84W and 88W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a trough west of Baja California 
and higher pressure in the subtropics is leading to fresh NW 
winds offshore Cabo San Lucas. This weak trough, which extends 
from 30N124W to 26N130W, breaks up the standard ridging pattern 
over parts of the tropics, leading mainly light winds across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 4 to 
6 ft over open waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas 
are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore 
Cabo San Lucas overnight and again Wed night. Elsewhere a weak 
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle 
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore 
waters through Sat. Broad low pressure may form over northern 
Central America and southern Mexico late this week into early
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active off
Costa Rica. This is due to a combination of abundant deep layer 
moisture, diffluent flow aloft, overnight coastal effects, and 
convergent low level winds ahead of an approaching tropical wave.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds persist across waters north of 
the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas 
are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate wave heights. Broad low pressure is likely to
form over northern Central America late this week into early
next week, drawing in increasing SW winds offshore Panama and 
Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure pattern continues across the region,
characterized by weak troughing north of 20N, breaking up the
normal subtropical ridge across the region. This in turn is
resulting in gentle toe moderate winds and moderate combined 
seas west of 110W. Recent buoy and scatterometer data showed 
moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds across the waters east of
110W and south of the monsoon trough. This is in response to 
lower pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean 
ahead of a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. 

For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east
of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week into early
next week. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen