854 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250841
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W reaching southward from
Guatemala into the eastern Pacific to near 05N. It is moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active 
from 12N to 13N between 92W and 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N85W to 13N100W to 
12N110W to 09N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active 
from 12N to 13N between 92W and 94W, and from 09N to 11N between
131W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 05 UTC confirmed fresh
to strong NW winds pulsing off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, due
in part to a locally tight gradient between a trough west of Baja
California and higher pressure farther south. The weak trough,
which extends from 30N123W to 22N132W breaks up the standard 
subtropical ridge pattern that is normally in place over the 
region, resulting in a very weak pressure gradient. Thus, winds 
are mainly light and variable across the offshore waters of 
Mexico, with the except of just offshore Cabo San Lucas, where 
some moderate NW winds have developed. Combined seas are 4 to 6 
ft over open waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 
1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse just 
offshore Cabo San Lucas through tonight. Elsewhere a weak 
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle 
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore 
waters through the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of El Salvador ahead of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds
persist across the regional offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft 
combined seas in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will 
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate wave heights into mid week. Looking ahead, SW winds
will increase along with building seas off Panama and Costa Rica
as broad low pressure forms over Central America.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1022 mb high pressure 39N134W 
dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in
mixed swell, highest along the monsoon trough between 120W and 
130W. Mainly gentle winds prevail. Little change is expected in 
marine conditions through mid week. Looking ahead, expect fresh
winds near the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W by Wed
associated with a weak trough. 

$$
Christensen