638 
AXPZ20 KNHC 240914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropcial wave is along 87W reaching southward from
Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific to near 04N. It is moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is active from 10N to 12N between 87W and 89W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N95W to 10N120W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
active from 09N to 11N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 10N to 12N between 87W
and 89W, and from 06N to 07N between 112W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough is analyzed well west of Guadalupe Island, extending
from 30N122W to 25N125W. This breaks up the standard subtropical
ridge pattern that is normally in place over the region,
resulting in a very weak pressure gradient. A recent 
scatterometer pass indicated mostly light breezes across the 
entire offshore waters areas of Mexico associated with the weak
pressure gradient. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters 
with components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the 
Gulf of California.
 
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore 
Cabo San Lucas tonight and Tue night. Elsewhere a weak gradient 
over the area will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes 
and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters 
through Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Nicaragua ahead of the approaching tropical wave. Generally
light breezes persist across the regional offshore waters, with 5
to 6 ft combined seas in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate wave heights through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1029 mb high pressure well 
north-northeast of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. A
pair of recent altimeter satellite passes indicated combined seas
of 7 to 8 ft near 10N120W. This is part of an elongated area of
rough seas associated primarily with southerly swell, roughly 
along the monsoon trough between 120W and 135W. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the seas to 8 ft are forecast to subside today.
Otherwise, little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen