000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W to 10N111W to 09N125W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ west of 137W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 120 nm south of the trough between 98W and 102W, and 
also within 60 nm south of the trough between 114W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Both satellite imagery and last ASCAT satellite data suggest 
that low pressure is near 16N102W. The low has a pressure of 
1008 mb, and is along a trough that extends from the low
northwestward to another 1008 mb low located southwest of Baja 
California Sur near 23N114W. The trough continues north-
northeastward to across Baja California Norte and northward from 
there to low pressure of 1006 mb at that border of California and
southeastern Nevada. Ship with call ID C6EI4 near 17N104W is 
reporting northeast winds of 15 kt along with combined seas of 5
ft. Seas over these waters are in the range of 4 to 6 ft mostly 
due to long-period south to southwest swell.

A large upper-level low, as seen in satellite water vapor, is
centered just inland the coast of Mexico near 24N106W. Its 
cyclonic circulation covers the area north of 19N and between
101W and 112W. Atmospheric moisture and instability enhanced by 
this feature is combining with the surface trough producing an 
area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 
20N between the coast of Mexico and 109W. 
 
For the forecast, a relatively weak gradient over the area will
generally maintain light to gentle northwest to north winds over
the Baja California offshore waters tonight. Winds then become 
light and variable Sun and Sun night and west to northwest at 
gentle to moderate speeds Mon and Mon night, except at fresh to 
strong speeds just offshore Cabo San Lucas Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern resides over the region. Seas over these
waters are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south to 
southwest swell as indicate by recent altimeter satellite data 
passes. Seas offshore Guatemala have subsided to just below 8 ft.

Increasing numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident north
of 05N east 87W. This activity precedes a tropical wave that is 
over western Colombia.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure pattern over the region
will continue at least into early next week providing for 
generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate wave 
heights. Seas offshore Guatemala will continue to subside into 
early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure of 1030
mb that is located well to the NW of the area near 35N156W, 
southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters. The 
associated gradient is supporting generally gentle to moderate 
north to northeast winds west of about 110W, except for slightly 
higher fresh northeast winds north of 22N and west of about 137W 
as seen in the latest ASCAT satellite data passes over that part 
of the area. Seas with these winds are in the range of 4 to 6 ft,
except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 22N west 
of 137W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of 
04N between 83W and 100W. Mostly gentle south to southwest winds 
are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough and mostly gentle east 
to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas with these winds 
are 5 to 7 ft, except for seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period 
southwest swell south of the monsoon trough to 07N between 95W 
and 107W as noted in a Sentinel altimeter satellite pass from 
1700 UTC. 

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through 
early next week as the current synoptic pattern stays nearly 
idle.

$$
Aguirre