000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State of Chiapas: The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue through this evening. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W to 11N110W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 88W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 116W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters. This feature is likely contained to the mid levels of the atmosphere. This area of showers is along a deep trough reaching from the lower Colorado River Valley, across the length of the Gulf of California, then farther to the southeast into central Mexico. The gradient between the trough and higher pressure farther west of the eastern Pacific is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the off Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 6 to 8 ft within NW swell. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are likely occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters, particularly off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Seas continue to be rough and range 8 to 10 ft. This is where showers and thunderstorms are still occurring. Across the rest of the southern and southwest Mexico offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas 4 to 7 ft. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today off the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh winds will diminish by tonight and rough seas are expected to subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through today, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region through this evening. To the north, fresh NW winds and rough seas are expected over the Baja California offshore waters through tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will improve this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Fresh SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today and into tonight. Fresh winds off the Central American offshore waters will diminish by this evening, and seas will subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as well as dangerous surf will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through late today. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 36N150W. The associated gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. East of 110W and north of 04N, fresh SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate. For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next week. $$ AReinhart