000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200910 RRA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Mexican State of Chiapas and Central America Heavy Rainfall:
The broad wind field of Tropical Storm Alberto southeast of
Tampico, Mexico continues to draw abundant moisture from the
eastern Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of Chiapas State
in Mexico and northern Central America. This can still cause
life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides.
Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri evening are far
southeastern Guatemala, El Salvador, southwestern Honduras and 
far western Nicaragua. Please refer to your local meteorological 
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from offshore of the
Oaxaca State in Mexico through 13N115W to 08N126W. An ITCZ 
continues from 08N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is near and south of the trough, north
of 07N between 83W and 99W, and from 08N to 11N between 101W AND
121W. This includes the offshore waters of Oaxaca State in Mexico,
southeastward to Costa Rica in Central America. Scattered moderate
convection is near the rest of the trough and ITCZ from 05N to 
07N between 131W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the 
region. Tropical Storm Alberto currently located southeast of 
Tampico, Mexico continues to sustain fresh to strong SW to W 
monsoonal winds and 9 to 11 ft seas across the offshore waters of
Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh with locally strong W to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are found offshore of central and the rest of southern Mexico,
including waters near Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. For
waters west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo
Islands, moderate with locally fresh NW to NNW winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds 
and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very 
rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms 
will continue to impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico 
through Fri, primarily off Chiapas and southeastern Oaxaca 
States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal 
areas of this region until Fri evening. To the north, fresh to 
strong NW winds and rough seas are expected near Baja California 
Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas and off Cabo 
Corrientes through Fri morning due to tighter pressure gradient. 
During the weekend, fresh to strong southerly winds might develop
at the northern Gulf of California. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Convergent southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms
off Colombia. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for 
additional convection in the region. Tropical Storm Alberto 
currently located southeast of Tampico, Mexico continues to 
sustain fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft 
seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. 
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SW winds along with seas at
5 to 7 ft are found at the offshore waters for Colombia and the 
rest of the Central America. Further south, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell 
exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very 
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms 
will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also 
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri 
evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. 
Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. 

A dissipating cold front curves southwestward from west of
southern California across 30N126W to 27N135W. Patchy rain is
present up to 80 nm northwest of this boundary. Otherwise, a 
broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii 
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is 
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 120W. West of
115W near the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate
monsoonal and southerly winds with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed
moderate swells exist. East of 115W and north of 06N, fresh to 
strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are 
present. South of 06N and ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and 
north of 06N will gradually decrease starting Fri evening.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through the 
weekend.

$$

Chan