000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation associated to newly 
formed Tropical Storm Alberto over the western Gulf of Mexico is 
drawing abundant moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the
coastal terrain of southern Mexico and northern sections of 
Central America. This can cause life-threatening conditions that 
include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest 
rainfall through Fri continue to be El Salvador, western 
Honduras, far western Nicaragua and coastal areas of southern 
Mexico and Guatemala. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions 
will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please
refer to your local meteorological and emergency management 
office bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends southwestward from just offshore
the Mexican state of Oaxaca from near 12N96W to 12N113W to 
07N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N130W to 06N135W and
to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
within 60 nm of the trough between 96W and 100W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 
104W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 
south of the trough between 121W and 125W, and within 30 nm of 
the trough between 125W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a 
heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Fresh to strong southwest to west monsoonal winds
continue to feed into the broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation 
associated to newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto located over 
the western Gulf of Mexico. These persistent winds have produced 
seas in the range of 9 to 11 ft seas across the offshore waters 
of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico as reported by a 
couple of ship observations. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate west 
to northwest winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate 
northwest well persist west of Baja California and near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds 
along with 6 to 8 ft seas are over the offshore waters of central
Mexico and the rest of southern Mexico, including waters near 
Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and 
seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough 
to very rough seas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms, some 
possibly strong, will continue to impact the offshore waters of 
southern Mexico through Fri, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and 
southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated 
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. 
Lingering northwest swell west of Baja California, mainly north 
of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. From 
Wed evening through Fri morning, fresh to strong northwest winds 
and rough seas should develop near Baja California Sur, 
including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient 
increases. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a 
heavy rainfall event.

Convergent southwest to west winds along with abundant tropical 
moisture are resulting in scattered heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the region.

The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation tied to newly formed 
Tropical Storm Alberto that is over the western Gulf of Mexico 
continues to pull in fresh to strong southwest to west winds and 
seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds along with 5
to 7 ft seas are found at the rest of the Central America 
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds and 
seas at 4 to 6 ft persist off Colombia. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly
swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern
Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated 
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther
south, moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly 
swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of 
Ecuador into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. 

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas 
of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 24N west of 130W, and fresh northwest
to north winds north of 28N between 119W and 125W with seas of
6 to 7 ft there. For the remainder of the waters north of 10N 
and waters near the ITCZ, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft 
seas prevail. Near the monsoon trough east of about 120W, mostly 
moderate south to southwest winds are present, except for fresh 
to strong southwest winds east of 107W. Seas with these winds are
5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft east of 107W. 
West of 120W, generally gentle to moderate southeast winds are 
present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along with seas of 5
to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through
the end of the week. SW to W winds and very rough seas south of 
the monsoon trough are expected to decrease toward this weekend.

$$
Aguirre