000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event: Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as of 21Z continues to sustain convergent monsoonal winds and draw abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of southern Mexico and into the northern sections of Central America. This can cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri continue to be over the western portion of Nicaragua, over western Honduras and far western Nicaragua, over most of El Salvador and over southern Mexico. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from just offshore the southeast part of the Mexican state of Guerrero near 16N99W southwestward to 10N120W to 06N130W and to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 99W and 100W, from 10N to 13N between 100W and 107W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 107W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a heavy rainfall event. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features section continues to sustain fresh to strong southwest to west winds and 8 to 11 ft seas over the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh northwest winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in lingering northwest west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas are near Baja California Sur. Slightly higher seas of 7 to 9 ft due to southwest to west swell are offshore central Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are present over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough to very rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri morning, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Lingering northwest swell over these waters, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. From Tue evening through Fri morning, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas should develop near Baja California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient increases. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a heavy rainfall event. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features section is sustaining fresh to strong southwest to west winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and 7 to 9 ft seas over the offshore waters of El Salvador. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are over the rest of the Central America waters. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the offshore waters of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in southwest to west swell over the rest of the Central American waters and 5 to 7 ft over the offshore waters of Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the offshore waters of Colombia and waters near the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft in south to southwest swell. The fresh to strong southwest to west winds are converging toward the Central American coast, and with a substantial amount of atmospheric moisture, this is sustaining scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters from northern Nicaragua to Guatemala. For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high that is northeast of Hawaii to west of Baja California Sur near 20N119W. The associated gradient is supporting moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 24N west of about 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 128W. The latest ASCAT satellite data passes over this part of the area depicted these winds. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through the end of the week. The gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds, primarily east of about 109W starting late on Wed along with seas building to 7 to 10 ft. $$ Aguirre