033 AXPZ20 KNHC 180943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event: The broad area of low pressure, Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) is persisting at the Bay of Campeche. It continues to sustain convergent monsoonal winds and draw abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of Central America and southern Mexico. This pattern will linger at least through late week, enhancing heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms. This can cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms have persisted near the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in Mexican overnight. Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Saturday, remain to be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, El Salvador, coastal sections of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends southwestward from the offshore water of Oaxaca State in Mexico through 07N120W to 05N137W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N137W to beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 13N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 94W and 107W, and from 06N to 08N between 118W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features section is sustaining fresh to strong with locally near-gale SW to W winds and 8 to 11 ft seas at the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in residual NW swell linger west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist near Baja California Sur and central Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present at the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri morning, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther north, fresh NW winds and rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte until late this morning, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Residual NW swell in these waters mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. From Wed evening through Fri morning, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas should develop near Baja California Sur, including waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient increases. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features section is sustaining moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to W winds and 7 to 9 ft seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. For the rest of the Central America, and Colombia offshore waters, gentle to moderate WSW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. These convergent monsoonal winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama and Colombia. Near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high northeast of Hawaii to west of Baja California Sur near 22N118W. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh NNW to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to large northerly swell, north of 18N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are evident farther southwest from 08N to 18N and west of 127W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate near the ITCZ and monsoonal trough west of 118W. South of the monsoon trough from 07N to 14N and east of 118W, fresh with locally strong SW to W winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted. For the remainder of the region, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate to large southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will gradually weaken starting this afternoon, which should allow winds and seas north of 18N and west of 120W to subside through Thu morning. South of the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N and east of 118W, fresh to strong SW to W winds will become more widespread with seas building to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed. Scattered moderate convection in this same general area is anticipated to persist through at least Thu. Seas of 6 to 8 ft will shift west of the Galapagos Islands by Wed. $$ Chan