000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing, with heavy rainfall already occurring. The first round of excessive rainfall is expected in Costa Rica and Panama tonight and Saturday, with 8 to 12 inches along the Pacific coasts. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur between Sunday and late next week across portions of Central America into Mexico. This rainfall event will cause very hazardous conditions to the region. Please refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 16N95W to 16N113W to 07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to 08N134W then from 09N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N and E of 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near 36N141W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 5 to 8 ft within NW swell across the region, with the highest seas N of 28N and W of Guadalupe Island. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, and seas range 2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico offshore waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the southern Mexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted north around 17N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are 6 to 8 ft. Across most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat over area waters. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist across the Baja California offshore waters through early next week. NW swell will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with seas building 8 to 11 ft through the weekend and into early next week north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are expected to peak north of Punta Eugenia by Sun night into Mon. Meanwhile, strong winds are expected near the Tehuantepec region with seas peaking near 12 ft beginning on Sunday and continuing through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central American Gyre. With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this is bringing fresh to strong winds across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters with seas 7 to 10 ft. North of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas. Strong thunderstorms continue to impact Central America, bringing heavy rain and frequent lightning. These storms could cause hazardous marine conditions. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S swell. For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this weekend. These widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring heavy rainfall and hazardous conditions. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Panama will improve by Sat. By Sun, these conditions are expected to develop across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Meanwhile, seas to 8 ft will continue around the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 36N141W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 110W with seas 6 to 9 ft. East of 110W, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted from the monsoon trough from 12N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near the stronger winds. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next week. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to continue tonight between 90W and 115W, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of days. Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. $$ AReinhart