443 AXPZ20 KNHC 142111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing, with heavy rainfall already occurring. The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation through the weekend. Excessive rainfall is also expected over Costa Rica and Panama through Sunday, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these areas. This rainfall event will cause very hazardous conditions to the region. This scenario is common during the developing of La Nina. Please refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N93W to 16N111W to 07N122W. The ITCZ extends from 07N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N and E of 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near 36N141W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell across the region. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, and seas range 2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico offshore waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the southern Mexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted north around 16N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are 6 to 8 ft. Thunderstorms are also occurring in this area, which are capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Across most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat over area waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will persist across the Baja California offshore waters through early next week. NW swell will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with seas building 8 to 11 ft through the weekend and into early next week north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are expected to peak north of Punta Eugenia on Mon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, will continue producing shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected. This system has a low chance of formation over the next 7 days. Despite of its development, strong winds are expected near the Tehuantepec region with seas peaking to 12 ft beginning on Sunday and continuing through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central American Gyre. With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this is bringing moderate to fresh winds across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Some areas are experiencing strong to pulsing near gale-force winds where the stronger thunderstorms are located. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate with 4 to 5 ft seas within SW swell. For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this weekend. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to impact Central America through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will shift to the Gulf of Panama tonight into Sat with rough seas. By Sun, these conditions are expected to develop across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Meanwhile, seas are expected to build to 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 36N141W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across waters W of 110W and seas are 5 to 8 ft. East of 110W, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted from the monsoon trough from 12N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near the stronger winds. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next week. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to continue tonight between 90W and 115W, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of days. Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. $$ ERA