000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121434
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged into the Pacific Ocean along 78W/79W,
from 14N in the SW Caribbean Sea to across the Gulf of Panama to 
near the border of Colombia and Ecuador, moving W at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N 
between the coast of Colombia and 82W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 08N110W to 07N120W to
09N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 17N between 87W and 107W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 107W and 121W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge 
southeastward to near Cabo San Lazaro. This pattern supports 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja offshore
waters between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands, and 
gentle to moderate NW winds to the north of Punta Eugenia. Seas 
are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Mainly moderate NW winds 
prevail across the southern half of the Gulf of California, where
seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds 
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Widely scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms persist across the waters 
south of 14N. North of 14N away from any convection and extending
to offshore Jalisco, smoke from agricultural fires may be 
restricting visibility somewhat over area waters.

For the forecast, troughing will extend from the Gulf of 
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands with broad ridging
northwest of there. A relatively tight pressure gradient will yield
an increase in winds on both sides of the troughing. NW swell 
will impact waters offshore Baja California at the end of the 
week into the weekend, leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft north of
Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the weekend. Thunderstorms 
offshore Central America will gradually shift northwest to the 
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico through at
least Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
position for this time of year, and currently extends from just
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador to across northern Nicaragua. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across area waters. 
Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 5 ft 
inside the Gulf of Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the 
regional offshore waters north of Ecuador in the moist southerly
flow, along with a tropical wave which has emerged offshore
Colombia through the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous 
thunderstorms will dominate the region for the remainder of the 
week. A broad area of low pressure could form late this week a 
couple of hundred nautical miles off the coast of southern 
Mexico or Guatemala. Some slow development is possible this 
weekend and early next week while the system meanders near the 
coast. This will allow for the monsoon trough to lift farther 
northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west 
of 88W increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building
seas of 8 to 11 ft at times. Look for thunderstorm activity to 
also increase during this time. Fresh to strong SW winds are 
expected to develop west of Colombia Fri and shift into the Gulf 
of Panama Fri night and Sat before diminishing. Seas may build to
around 8 ft there with these winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A frontal trough extends from 30N123W to 26N129W with moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft behind it. A weak trough is
embedded in the monsoon trough along 134W/135W from 07N to 17N.
Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the waters north of the
monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
in mixed swell west of 110W. To the east of 110W, moderate to 
fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough north of 02N, along 
with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas in S to SW swell are elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward may
dip south of 30N at times this weekend, with seas building to 8
to 12 ft by the end of the weekend. The SW flow south of the 
monsoon trough is forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds 
into Thu between 90W and 110W, building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and 
forcing increasing thunderstorm activity across that area.

$$
Lewitsky