000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120834
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N85W to 10N105W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N 
E of 100W and from 06N to 10N between 100W and 109W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern 
supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja 
offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo 
Islands, and gentle to moderate NW winds to the north of Punta 
Eugenia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Mainly moderate
NW winds prevail across the southern half of the Gulf of 
California, where seas are in the 2 to 3 ft range, except to 4 ft
at the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 5 to 6 ft
in SW swell. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms persist across 
the waters south of 14N. N of 14N extending to offshore Jalisco,
smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility over
area waters.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through the week. The high pressure will build 
toward the area Thu and Fri and yield an increase in winds. NW 
swell will impact waters offshore Baja California at the end of 
the week, leading to seas of 7 to 9 ft. Thunderstorms offshore 
Central America will gradually shift NW to the waters of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico through Thu night.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
position for this time of year, and currently extends from 
NW Nicaragua across the Pacific offshore waters along 13N to the
south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This pattern is forecast to 
persist through the week, with the potential for the trough to 
lift farther north and to the waters offshore of Tehuantepec. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across area waters. Seas are 
generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 4 ft inside the Gulf
of Panama. Thunderstorms continue across the regional offshore 
waters N of 05N, and extend across large portions of Central 
America.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous 
thunderstorms will dominate the region this week. Low pressure is
expected to develop across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of Central America Wed 
and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough to lift farther 
northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west 
of 90W increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building
seas to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm activity to also increase 
during this time. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected to 
develop south of Panama Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri
night and Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge associated with a 1030 mb high pressure centered near
38N143W is demounting waters N of 15N and W of 115W, producing
gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the monsoon trough. To the
S, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, but and area of
fresh SW winds is noted just S of the monsoon trough but N of
05N between 95W and 110W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the entire 
area in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters W of 120W into the weekend. The SW 
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to increase to fresh
to strong speeds into Thu between 90W and 110W, building seas to
8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing thunderstorm activity across 
that area.

$$
Konarik