000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75.5W to 10N80W to 13N90W to 08N125W to 11N130W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 05.5N E of 90W and into the SW Caribbean, from 06.5N to 10.5N between 103W and 116W, and from 07N to 11.5N between 122W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 90W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1025 mb is located near 35N135W overnight has collapsed ahead of an approaching cold front near that area. The remaining ridge continues southeastward across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico along 112W. This pattern supports mainly moderate NW to N winds across the Baja offshore waters between 30N and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the southern half of the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except to 5 ft at the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms persist across the waters south of 14N, between Chiapas and Guerrero. North of these thunderstorms, areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may still be lingering across the nearshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore forecast waters through Thu, producing moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh winds near the coast during the afternoon through late evening hours. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh speeds across the central portions this evening and Wed evening. High pressure across the northeast Pacific will strengthen Thu night and Fri and yield a increase in winds across the offshore waters. Thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Central America are expected to begin to shift west and northwestward and into the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual position for this time of year, and currently extends from central Nicaragua across the Pacific offshore waters along 13N to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This pattern is forecast to persist through the week, with the potential for the trough to lift farther north and to the waters offshore of Tehuantepec late in the week. The current trough position is resulting in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central America north of 04N, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds between the Galapagos Islands and southwestern Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the regional offshore waters, and moving across large portions of Panama into the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will dominate the region this week. Low pressure is expected to develop across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of Central America Wed and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough to lift farther northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 88W increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas of 7 to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm activity to also increase during this time. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high pressure system centered near 35N135W overnight has collapsed, as a cold front has moved to near that position. However, the associated ridge persists over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 112W, producing a gentle to moderate N to NE wind flow north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate S to SW winds are observed S of the monsoon trough from the Equator to about 08N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the entire area in mixed S and NW swell. For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the area will dominate waters W of 120W throughout the week. The SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight into Thu between 90W and 110W, building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing thunderstorm activity across that area. $$ Stripling