000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110754
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to 12N100W to 09N137W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
06N to 14N E of 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from
07N to 11N between 100W and 110W and from 09N to 11N between 
126W and 134W.

 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb is located NW of area near 35N135W and 
extends a ridge southeastward across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico along 110W. 
This pattern supports gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta 
Eugenia and moderate to locally fresh NW winds southward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. Light winds
are noted inside the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1
to 3 ft range, except to 4 ft at the entrance. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 7 ft
in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms across waters along and S of
Oaxaca. North of these thunderstorms, areas of smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico may be impact waters offshore
Guerrero and Michoacan. 

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through Thu, producing moderate NW winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh winds near the coast during the
afternoon through late evening hours. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California, pulsing to fresh speeds across the central portions
this evening and Wed evening. High pressure across the northeast
Pacific will strengthen Thu night and Fri and yield a increase 
in winds across the offshore waters. Thunderstorms across the 
offshore waters of Central America are expected to begin to shift
west and northwestward and into the waters of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and southern Mexico tonight through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
position for along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua to 13N. This 
pattern is forecast to persist through the week, with the 
potential for the trough to lift farther north and to the waters
offshore of Tehuantepec late in the week. The current trough 
position is resulting in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the 
offshore waters of Central America north of 04N, and gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds between the Galapagos Islands and 
southwestern Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, 
except 3 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms continue across the regional offshore waters.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and associated seas and 
thunderstorms will dominate the region this week. Low pressure is
expected to develop across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of Central America Wed 
and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough to lift northward 
toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 88W 
increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas 
of 7 to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm activity to also increase 
during this time.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system is centered near 35N135W and 
extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W,
producing a gentle to moderate mainly NE flow. Moderate S to SW 
winds are observed S of the monsoon trough from the Equator to 
about 08N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters W of 120W throughout the week. The SW 
flow south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to 
increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight into Thu, building 
seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing thunderstorms.

$$
Konarik