000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W to 08N79W to 13N90W to 
08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 11N133W to beyond 
10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
05N to 09N E of 91W, from 06.5N to 11N between 100W and 110W, and
from 08.5N to 11.5N between 126W and 134W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 
91W and 99W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb IS located NW of area near 35N134W and 
extends a ridge southeastward across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico along 110W. 
This pattern supports gentle NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and 
moderate NW winds southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas 
are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia, and 
5 to 7 ft to the south. Light and variable winds were detected by
satellite scatterometer around noon today inside the Gulf of 
California, where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range, except to 4 
ft at the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds dominate the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in SW swell. Scattered 
thunderstorms are along the coast of Chiapas, Mexico, and also do
the outer waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will continue to dominate the 
Baja offshore forecast waters through early Thu, producing 
mainly moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft through mid-week. 
Afternoon heating is expected to produce fresh winds near the 
coast through the late evening hours. Moderate northerly winds 
are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California, 
increasing to fresh speeds across the central portions along the 
coast of the mainland Tue evening and Wed evening. High pressure 
across the northeast Pacific will strengthen Thu and Fri, and 
yield a modest increase in winds across the offshore waters. 
Active thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Central 
America are expected to begin to shift west and northwestward and
into the waters of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico tonight 
through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year, extending
across northern Costa Rica and along the Pacific coast of
Nicaragua to 13N to the south of El Salvador. This pattern is 
forecast to persist throughout the work week, with the potential
for the trough to lift farther northward and to the waters
offshore of Tehuantepec late in the week. The current trough 
position is resulting in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the
offshore waters of Central America north of 06N, and moderate to
locally fresh S to SW winds between the Galapagos Islands and 
southwestern Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell,
except 3 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered to locally
numerous thunderstorms continue across the regional offshore 
waters. 

For the forecast, monsoonal winds will dominate the weather
pattern across the region this week. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail north of 11N, increasing to gentle to moderate Wed and
Thu. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 11N 
through Wed. An elongated cyclonic circulation is expected to 
develop across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of 
Campeche and western portions of Central America Wed and Thu. 
This will induce the monsoon trough to lift northward towards 
Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 90W increasing to fresh to
locally strong. Thunderstorm activity will also increase during 
this time, and spread inland, raising the potential for heavy 
rains and flash flooding. The increasing winds will also lead to
building seas of 7 to 10 ft across the waters west of 88W during
that time.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 35N134W and 
extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W,
producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow, with highest
winds near the ITCZ west of 125W. Moderate SE to S winds are 
observed S of the ITCZ from the Equator to about 08N and W of 
120W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW swell to the north of
the Equator, except to 8 ft W of 138W between 10N and 17N, and 6
to 7 ft in SW swell to the south of 10N.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area W of 120W
throughout the week, while strengthening modestly NW portions Tue
night through Wed, then across most of the rest of the area by
the end of the week, as high pressure strengthens NW of the area. 
somewhat by the middle of the week. The SW flow south of the 
monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase to fresh to 
strong speeds Tue night through Wed night, building seas to 8 to
10 ft, and forcing increasing thunderstorm activity there. 

$$
Stripling