000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100731
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N106W to 09N123W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 95W, and 
from 12N to 15N between 96W and 102W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends 
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
supporting gentle NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and moderate NW 
winds to the S, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle southerly 
winds are seen in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 
to 3 ft range. Gentle winds dominate the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly moderate NW 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft through mid-week. Occasionally 
moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, increasing
to fresh speeds across the central part of the Gulf Tue night through
Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge 
and lower pressure pressures over inland Mexico. At the same 
time, fresh NW winds are likely between Punta Eugenia and Cabo 
San Lazaro. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year, and this
pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-week. This 
results in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore 
waters of Central America. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N,
while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 10N
today. By tonight, winds will begin to gradually increase S of 
the monsoon trough, likely reaching fresh to locally strong 
speeds by Wed night, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W and 105W.
Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft within these winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N135W. This 
system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
115W producing a gentle anticyclonic flow. Moderate to locally 
fresh E to SE winds are observed S of the ITCZ from the Equator 
to about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
strengthening somewhat by the middle of the week. The SW flow 
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed night, building seas to 9 
or 10 ft. 

$$
Konarik