000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091512
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N100W to 09N120W TO
10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N 
east of 90W to the coast of Colombia, and from 06N to 15N 
between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 11N between 102W and 115W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1024 mb located N of area near 40N135W extends 
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
supporting moderate NW winds, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will
diminish this morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
are noted elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Across the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. 
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will 
continue off Baja California through the middle of the week. 
Fresh S to SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of 
California into tonight as low pressure remains near the area. 
Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico
will continue offshore of SW and southern Mexico for the next 
couple of days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year. This results 
in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of 
Central America. Light to gentle winds are evident in the 
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.  

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N,
while gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 10N through
Mon. By Mon night into Tue, the southwesterly flow S of of the 
monsoon trough is forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong
speeds, building seas to 8 or 9 ft across the outer offshore 
forecast waters of Central America. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system is centered near 40N135W. This 
system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
115W producing mainly gentle anticyclonic flow. An area of 
moderate trades is noted along the southern periphery of the 
ridge, roughly from 10N to 13N W of 135W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for 
waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
strengthening somewhat by the middle of this week. The SW flow 
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds Mon night, building seas to 8 
or 9 ft. A stationary front near 30N140W will dissipate today

$$
GR