451 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090114
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N88W to 12N104W to 09N126W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to 
08N east of 80W to the coast of Colombia, and from 09N to 16N 
between 89W and 106W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located NW of area near 33N139W extends
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California  
supporting moderate NW winds, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds and slight seas are present in the Gulf of 
California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. 
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America, 
reducing visibility to around 5 nm at times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft will continue off Baja California through the middle 
of next week. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are expected 
in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and again Sun night 
as a low pressure develops there. Hazy conditions caused by smoke
from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW 
and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing 
visibility to near 5 nm at times. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year. This results 
in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of 
Central America. Light to gentle winds are evident in the 
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. 
Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico and Central America. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N, while gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 10N 
this weekend. By Mon, the southwesterly flow S of of the monsoon 
trough is forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong speeds,
building seas to 8 or 9 ft across the outer offshore forecast 
waters of Central America. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system is centered near 33N139W. This 
system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
115W producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow. An area of 
moderate trades is noted along the southern periphery of the 
ridge, roughly from 10N to 13N W of 135W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for
waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 
6 to 8 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, 
mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
strengthening somewhat by the middle of next week. The SW flow 
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds beginning  Mon, building seas 
to 8 or 9 ft. A stationary front will remain near 30N140W 
through Sun while weakening. 

$$
Konarik