000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080256
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 123W from 15N to 02N, moving W at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N 
between 120W and 124W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N 
and east of 119W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N to 14N and west of 135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California 
supports moderate NW winds across the Baja California offshore 
waters. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle winds and 
slight seas are present in the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. 
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.

For the forecast, moderate NW-N winds will continue off Baja
California into the middle of next week, with NW swell decaying
below 8 ft Sat. Fresh winds will push through the mountain gaps 
and reach the Gulf of California in the night and morning hours 
during the next few days. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW and 
southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing visibility 
to near 5 nm at times. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year. This results 
in gentle moderate SW-W winds in the offshore waters of Central 
America. SW swell produces seas of 5 to 7 ft across the area 
described. Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are evident in 
the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the equator.

Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico and Central America. 

For the forecast, light to moderate winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and Mon 
night as high pressure builds N of the area. Light to gentle 
breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama region through 
Mon. SW swell will maintain 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure system is centered near 32N135W and 
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures associated with a surface trough extending from 30N120W
to 19N127W support gentle N winds north of 20N and west of the 
trough. Seas in these waters are 7 to 8 ft due to northerly 
swell.

Farther south, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are occurring from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also noted 
south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
weakening slowly over the next couple of days. Large NW swell
will decay as it propagates across the northern waters, and seas
will subside below 8 ft Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of
8-9 ft will continue across the eastern EPAC and expand into the
central waters near and south of the monsoon trough this weekend.

$$
Konarik