000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050954
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 110W from 15N southward, and moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 10N between 109W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from near the Honduras-Costa 
Rica border through 10N100W to 10N120W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 10N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted near the trough from 08N to 
13N between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near the rest of the trough from 05N to 08N between 78W and 
85W, and from 08N to 10N between 109W and 116W. Similar
convection is also present near the ITCZ from 07N to 10N west of 
130W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high near 30N144W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this 
high and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting 
northwesterly winds, moderate to locally fresh offshore from 
Baja California Sur, and gentle to moderate offshore from Baja
California Norte. Seas are at 5 to 6 ft for both areas. Light to
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist in the Gulf of California.
Gentle to moderate westerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the central and southern Mexico offshore waters. Refer to the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the Mexico offshore
waters. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm 
at times.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms are expected offshore 
from Oaxaca and Chiapas States through Thu night. Moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds will continue off Baja California Sur
through this weekend, while winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse
between fresh and strong during the nighttime and early morning 
hours through Fri morning. Large NW swell is going to cause 
rising seas off Baja California Thursday and Friday. Hazy 
conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
continue offshore of central and southern Mexico for the next 
couple of days, reducing visibility to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found in the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua, north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds prevail for the
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, near and south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas in both areas range from 4 to 6 ft.
Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in these
offshore waters. When convection is not present, hazy conditions
are expected due to smoke coming from agricultural fires in 
southern Mexico and Central America. Mostly gentle southerly 
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are 
occurring in the waters near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms are expected across 
the Central America offshore waters through Thursday night. Light
to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N, while moderate to 
locally fresh winds are expected south of 10N for the next 
several days. Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused by smoke from 
agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce 
visibilities mainly over the northern Central American offshore 
waters for the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high near 30N144W is channeling gentle to moderate N 
to NE winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas north of 20N and west of 
120W. Gentle NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are found from 
just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 110W and 
130W. Tighter gradient between this high and the ITCZ is 
generating moderate to fresh NE winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas 
from the ITCZ to 20N west of 130W. Gentle to moderate with 
locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail south 
of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, winds and seas from the ITCZ to 20N, west of
139W will gradually subside through Thu. Large NW swell will 
reach 30N early this evening, then progress southeastward through
Fri. Anticipate Seas north of 21N build up to 10 ft by Thu
morning, then gradually subside this weekend.

$$

Chan