000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 108W from 05N to 
15N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N 
between 105W and 111W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 13N100W to 09N124W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N 
between 82W and 101W. Similar convective activity is seen in the 
Gulf of Panama.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered located W of area
near 31N145W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly
winds within about 60-75 nm of the coast of Baja California, and
moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere across the offshore
forecast waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of
California and the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.  
Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in NW swell off Baja California 
Norte, and 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in southwest
swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. 
Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico 
and Central America, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue 
off the Baja California waters through tonight, with mostly 
moderate NW winds afterwards. Fresh NW winds are expected to 
pulse at night and into the mornings offshore Cabo San Lucas 
during the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open 
waters. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are expected off of Baja California 
Norte through Thu morning. Then, another swell event will bring
seas of 8 to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia later on Thu. Hazy conditions 
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico will continue for
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at 
times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of the monsoon trough with 
axis around 09N. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of 
the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
across the offshore forecast waters from Guatemala to Costa Rica 
and in the Gulf of Panama. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in 
long- period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions continue off the 
northern Central American coast due to agricultural fires in 
southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected S of 09N for the 
next several days. Scattered storms are expected to continue over
the Central America offshore waters through Thu. Meanwhile, hazy
conditions from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico 
and Central America may reduce visibilities mainly over the 
northern Central American offshore waters over the next couple 
of days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb located W of area near 31N145W dominates
the region N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the 
monsoon trough to 20N and W of 130W. Seas with these winds are 
in the 8 to 9 ft range in N to NE swell. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
north to northeast swell across all but the far NW waters, where 
seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, seas over the trade wind zone in the western
waters will gradually subside through Wed. A new swell event will
reach the NW waters on Wed, and propagate across the area N of 
25N on Thu, building seas to 8 to 11 ft between 120W and 130W. 
Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft late on Fri.

$$
GR