000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed May 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 08N120W. The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within 90 nm of the coast from northwest Nicaragua to central Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is also from 08N to 10N between 115W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 04 UTC indicated moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, primarily off Punta Eugenia. These winds persist between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft off southern Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Regional observations confirm hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja California from tonight through Fri, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Hazy conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite pass south of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft associated with an upper trough reaching from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Gulf of Fonseca to off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range into Sun as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging north of 15N continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 22N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to 26N and east of 120W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be present near the thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. $$ Christensen