000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282138
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2125 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N84W to 11N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N116W to another
1010 mb low pressure near 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is present from 06N to 12N and east of 94W, and from 
05N to 11N and between 114W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 35N139W extends 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent 
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NW-N 
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the 
strongest winds occurring south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these 
waters are 4-6 ft.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulfs of
Tehuantepec and California, light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW 
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural 
fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may 
decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support
moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja 
California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy 
conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America. Looking ahead, expect building seas 
with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja 
California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9 
or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly
winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite pass south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. 

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching 
from Cuba to Central America is producing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore 
waters of Central America. Hazy conditions continue off the 
Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to
3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are
forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the 
monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are 
expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in 
the 4-6 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of 
SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from 
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central 
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central 
America offshore waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb subtropical ridge located north of the area continues
to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The 
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds south of 24N and west of 120W. Seas in 
these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and 
seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to 26N and east of 120W. 
Stronger winds and higher seas may be present near the 
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region 
will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade 
winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to 
build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly 
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed
and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of 
NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

$$
Delgado