098 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270249
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 12N110W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 10N115W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
02N to 07N east of 82W, from 06N to 08N between 88W and 91W, and
from 08N to 10N between 116W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh
NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. 
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between broad
ridging to the west and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas
remains in the 5 to 7 ft range with a component of NW swell. 
Gentle to moderate NW winds are observed in the central Gulf of 
California while light to gentle winds prevail across the 
northern and southern parts of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 
3 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas are present, primarily in SW 
swell. Medium concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, 
are still noted over SE Mexico, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to
fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through at least mid-week. In the Gulf of California, light to
gentle winds are expected, pulsing to moderate speeds across the
north and central part of the Gulf at night. Light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy 
conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. 
Looking ahead, seas conditions are forecast to deteriorate N of 
Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches 
the area. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft with this swell
event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate persist across the region. Combined seas are 
3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active east of 82W off Panama and Colombia. Medium concentration
of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while 
light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri. Light
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could 
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days. Seas will remain in the 3 to 5
ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of SW swell 
propagate across the forecast region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Under the influence 
of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where moderate 
to fresh winds are blowing. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate 
most of the forecast area based on altimeter data.

1011 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N115W 
generating some convective activity. Fresh to strong southerly 
winds are S of the monsoon trough/low, mainly between 115W and 
120W. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are noted. 

For the forecast, the high pressure, and associated ridge, will 
remain in place through the next several days. By mid-week, this 
system will strengthen some N of the area, bringing moderate to 
fresh winds across the trade wind zone, with seas building to 8 
ft mainly W of 130W. 

$$
Christensen