000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border to 12N95W to a 1010 mb low pres near 12N111W to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 100W, from 05N to 12N between 100W and 110W, and from 06N to 09N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1034 mb is located NW of the forecast area. Its associated ridge covers the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over central Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range due to NW swell. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, while mainly light and variable winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf as noted on recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern of 30N, with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds persist. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in mixed NW and SW swell. Light concentration of smoke due to agricultural fires is noted across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This could reduce visibilities at times. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected, building to 5 to 7 ft, mainly S of Punta Eugenia, Sat night into Sun. Winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to strong tonight as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of California through Sun. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the Central America offshore waters and Colombia. This convective activity is related to the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N. Some storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough while light and variable winds are north of it. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Light concentration of smoke due to agricultural fires is noted across northern Central America offshore forecast waters. This could reduce visibilities at times. For the forecast, abundant moisture, in a SW wind flow, will continue to enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist S of the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N while light to gentle winds are expected N of it through at least Sun. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12N111W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this low, particularly on the SE semicircle. Combined seas in this area are 5 to 6 ft. As previously mentioned, high pressure of 1034 mb located NW of the forecast region extends a ridge across the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted per scatterometer data from 06N to 15N W of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area. $$ GR