065 AXPZ20 KNHC 240851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 13N111W to 08N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N and E of 92W, and from 07N to 12N between 96W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 15N and west of 107W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist with moderate winds along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coastline. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in NW and SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread light haze across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will begin to retreat through the weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja California offshore waters through Mon night. Winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to strong on Fri night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Winds will prevail moderate to fresh through the weekend over the remainder of the Gulf. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over most of the Mexico offshore waters through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia, N of 05N and E of 92W. This is due in part to converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Some storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south as Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities at times. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue to pulse over the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia through Sat night. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to fresh today. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist across the Central and South American offshore waters from tonight through early next week S of 09N, with light to gentle breezes north of 09N. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough near 13N111W. No significant convection is noted within the low. Combined seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1035 mb high pressure centered near 37N150W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ along 08N to 18N and west of 120W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. N of 18N, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island today. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken today, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area. $$ ERA