261 AXPZ20 KNHC 231709 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 12N109W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 88W and 105W. Scattered moderate conveciton is noted from 05N to 09N between 113W and 132W and from 05N to 08N and W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread medium haze across the Oaxaca offshore waters near the coast and light haze across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters will continue through Mon night. Winds could pulse to strong near Punta Eugenia at night through the weekend. Winds in the Gulf of California will prevail moderate to fresh through Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia, N of 03N between 77W and 89W. This is due in part to converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Some storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Fri night. For waters south of 08N, winds will be moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist across the Central and South American offshore waters from Fri night through early next week S of 08N, with light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough near 13N111W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 109W and 112W. Moderate SW winds are noted around the low. Combined seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered near 37N147W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ along 07N and west of 110W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island today. Winds and seas will continue to subside today as a result. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area. $$ AReinhart