000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N110W to 08N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 17N and E of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 20N and west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate to fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. NW swell is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the waters around Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are 2 to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread medium haze across the Oaxaca offshore waters near the coast and light haze across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside below 8 ft today. Winds in the Gulf of California will prevail moderate to fresh through Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident south of 08N, with light and variable winds north of 08N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities. For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Fri. For waters south of 08N, winds will be moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of 08N from Fri through early next week, with light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 12N110W. Moderate to fresh SW winds near the low are converging into the monsoon trough between 100W and 111W. Combined seas in this area are peaking to 7 ft. The convergent SW winds are also supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to 200 nm of the low. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered near 37N145W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ along 07N and west of 110W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is evident north of 28N between 120W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island today. Winds and seas will continue to subside today as a result along with showers and thunderstorm activity weakening along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja California. This will continue through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area. $$ ERA